The Housing Paradox: Why "More" Doesn't Always Mean "Affordable"

For a long time, we’ve been told a simple story: if we build more houses, housing prices will come down. It’s the classic law of supply and demand. But as a recent New York Times report points out, that logic is failing the people who need help the most.

In cities like Phoenix, Dallas, and Seattle—places that have been building at breakneck speeds—life isn't getting easier for low-income families. In many cases, it’s getting harder.

The Luxury Mismatch

The problem isn't just how much we're building; it's what we're building. To make a profit, developers almost exclusively target the high end of the market.

• The "Lifestyle" Target: New buildings consist overwhelmingly of top-of-the-line units aimed at high-earning professionals. According to the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies (2025), even as apartment completions hit a 40-year high, they are almost entirely concentrated in the luxury and middle-market tiers.

• Families Left Out: These units are too small and too expensive for low-income households with children. The NLIHC’s 2025 Gap Report found a shortage of 7.1 million affordable homes for the nation's 10.9 million extremely low-income renters.

• Shrinking Low-Cost Stock: According to the 2025 Greater Boston Housing Reportcard, the number of renters able to afford even a 'starter' home in the region has been cut in half in just four years. Meanwhile, MAPC (2025) finds that across Massachusetts, over 440,000 low-income families are 'unstably housed' because the supply of no-frills, naturally affordable apartments has been gutted by investor flips and high-end redevelopments.

• The Phoenix Case Study: In Phoenix, the vacancy rate for new units is over 9%. Despite this "surplus," rents for extremely low-income households rose by 26.7%, while rents for the wealthy actually fell.

  
  

Why "Filtering" Isn't Saving Massachusetts

Economists often point to filtering—the idea that building luxury housing eventually "trickles down" as residents move out of older, cheaper apartments. But in Massachusetts, the gear is jammed.

• The "Starter Home" Cliff: A 2025 Boston Indicators report found that the income needed to buy an "entry-level" home in Greater Boston has skyrocketed to $162,000. Because many first time buyers can't afford to buy, they remain in older rentals, keeping demand (and prices) high for everyone else.

The New Crisis: Skyrocketing Insurance

Beyond construction, there is a "tomorrow's crisis" brewing: insurance costs.

• Insurance is currently the fastest-growing cost in housing (Housing Wire, 2026)

• In 2023, premiums jumped by 25% or more for many affordable housing providers (Enterprise, 2026)

• These costs force landlords to either hike rents, delay repairs, or, in some cases, file for bankruptcy (FEDS Notes, 2025)

  
  

There are a number of factors influencing the affordability of homes in Massachusetts and across the country, but the overall conclusion is: we need to do better. If our friends and neighbors are forced to move out of our communities due to a severe housing shortage, and building more units doesn’t solve the problem, what will?